Risk-as-a-Service

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Shares posted a record drop of 23% after the company reported an unexpected loss in 2Q23. The Root cause lies in the challenging markets demand environment, influenced by two factors: diminished consumer purchasing power lading to a shift towards lower-priced alternatives and reduced activity in the residential construction sector. Asset liquidity (cash/current assets) moved lower in the recent measures. The 12-month trailing yield has reached its 10-year low; this could signal that the company is starting to look overvalued in relation to earnings. This points to the current situation where the market was overly confident about the company’s earnings, leading to price drop when actual earnings failed to meet expectations. If the company is contemplating raising fresh capital, it is essential to consider these factors, as they can impact the feasibility of equity fundraising and may result in a greater reliance on debt financing. Looking at the credit quality, the credit rating has been downgraded to B, driven by escalating leverage and a $3.67Bio loss in the market value of assets. This creates a tight credit environment where tapping into debt markets may be more expensive, further straining the company’s cash flow. The recent dip in holdings among active equity investors, a good proxy for confidence, could make the equity price even more sensitive to any unforeseen developments or negative news.